Ep 149: TSMC Q4 25 Earnings, OpenAI Needs more Compute and Monetization

The Circuit · 19 Jan 2026 · 54m · Episode 151

What this episode covers

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg analyze TSMC's Q4 25 earnings, highlighting the massive $54 billion CapEx commitment and the critical bottleneck of CoWoS advanced packaging, which currently contributes less than 10% of revenue despite its complexity. They discuss OpenAI's strategic partnerships with Cerebras and other chip vendors to secure compute, alongside the introduction of ads and lower-tier subscriptions to monetize their user base. Finally, the hosts break down GPU pricing trends, noting the significant premium hyperscalers charge compared to NeoClouds and the difficulty in tracking pricing for Nvidia's new Grace Blackwell chips due to long-term contract restrictions.

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