Hardware Podcasts

313 - "We don't see a recession in 2025" Tariffs and the Economy with Lauren Saidel-Baker from ITR Economics

People of Packaging · 12 Jun 2025 · 37m

What this episode covers

Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, joins Adam Peek to discuss the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the packaging industry. She argues that while tariffs create uncertainty and inflationary pressure, they are not the primary driver of current onshoring trends, which are fueled by labor costs and energy prices. Saidel-Baker predicts no recession in 2025 due to strong consumer spending, but warns of a potential depression around 2030 driven by demographic shifts and government debt.

Most relevant to

large enterprises

Topics

Mentioned

Companies
ITR Economics, CROW LLP, Specright, Meyers Packaging, Label King, Trayak, SmartSolve
Products
The Scrapp App
Also
Wellesley College, TLMI

Related episodes from other shows

Other shows on the same ground, closest first.

  • EMS@C-LEVEL · 17m

    EMS & The Economist - Tariffs Special - April 13th, 2025

    IPC Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac joins host Philip Stoten to analyze the rapid evolution of US tariff policy, noting a shift from country-specific to sectorial tariffs targeting electronics regardless of origin. DuBravac explains that while the administration aims to incentivize domestic production, the reliance on imported components like PCBs means US-made goods will still face price increases. The episode highlights how this policy volatility is causing business leaders to pause investment, raising the probability of a shallow recession starting in Q3 2025. DuBravac warns that constant policy changes create uncertainty that hinders long-term supply chain planning and global trade relationships.

    Policy, trade & tariffsSourcing & supply chain
    7 chapters

  • EMS@C-LEVEL · 23m

    Tariffs and Trade: EMS & The Economist on Global Manufacturing's Future Amid Political Shifts

    Shawn DuBravac, Chief Economist at the Electronics Industries Alliance (EIA), discusses the immediate impact of the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies on global manufacturing and the EMS sector. He highlights a massive, panic-driven pull-forward of imports in December and January, with PCB order flows hitting the 99th percentile as companies rush to beat potential March 1 tariffs on Canada and Mexico. DuBravac warns that these tariffs will likely be inflationary across multiple sectors, including food and construction, while creating uncertainty that delays long-term capital investments in US manufacturing capacity. The conversation also covers CES 2025 trends, noting a strong shift toward autonomous vehicles and EVs, driven by companies like Waymo and BYD, alongside the broader integration of AI into hardware.

    Policy, trade & tariffsPricing, margins & unit economics
    8 chapters

  • The Manufacturing Executive · 32m

    Tariffs, Interest Rates, Inflation and a 2025 Manufacturing Outlook w/ Daniel Doderer

    Daniel Doderer, Research Director at Flack Global Metals, discusses the 2025 manufacturing outlook, focusing on the impact of new tariffs on steel and aluminum, the persistence of higher interest rates, and the resulting wage pressures. He explains how domestic steel producers are raising prices ahead of tariff implementation and warns that restrictive immigration policies could exacerbate labor shortages and trigger a wage-price spiral. Doderer also highlights data showing that nearly 10% of construction spending is now directed toward manufacturing, signaling a structural shift in the US industrial base.

    Policy, trade & tariffsPricing, margins & unit economics
    7 chapters

  • EMS@C-LEVEL · 33m

    EMS & the Economist with IPC Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac - July 2024

    Shawn DuBravac, Chief Economist at IPC, discusses the gradual softening of the North American PCB and EMS markets, noting that companies are working through significant backlogs while holding off major investments due to uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and interest rate cuts. He analyzes the impact of enduring tariffs on Chinese goods, explaining how they have shifted supply chains to beneficiaries like Mexico, Malaysia, and Vietnam, and altered the EV landscape in North America and Europe. DuBravac also highlights the increasing complexity of electronics driven by AI and the potential for near-shoring to persist regardless of political outcomes, as long-term industrial policy remains consistent across administrations.

    Policy, trade & tariffsSourcing & supply chain
    8 chapters

  • OnTrack · 22m

    OnTrack PCB Design Podcast 2025 Year in Review

    Host Zach Peterson reviews 2025 industry trends, highlighting how tariffs reshaped global supply chains and spurred UHDI manufacturing expansion in the US. Guests including David Schild, Tyler Richards, and Greg Papandrew discuss the economic realities of reshoring, the technical challenges of high-layer count and rigid-flex PCBs, and the specific innovations in solder paste and substrate materials. The episode also examines the practical application of AI in embedded development and supply chain management, noting both its utility in automating coding tasks and its current limitations in deterministic engineering optimization.

    Sourcing & supply chainAI & machine learning
    12 chapters

The summary, chapters and topics are generated from the episode’s audio by this directory, not written by People of Packaging. The episode itself belongs to its publisher.