Catalyst · 22 Jan 2026 · 25m
Energy Impact Partners' Shayle Kann interviews analyst Nat Bullard, co-founder of Halcyon, about his 2026 decarbonization trends deck. They analyze the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index outperforming major market indices in 2025, the sharp decline in US energy startup investment from $8 billion to $2 billion, and the resulting prediction of a 2026 rebound. The conversation covers the paradox of falling solar module prices alongside rising US installation costs, Australia's rapid residential battery adoption, and China's dominance in global vehicle manufacturing and electric truck deployment.
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Chris Gammell details his new 13kW solar and Tesla Powerwall 3 installation, discussing the economics of virtual power plants and peak pricing. Dave Jones analyzes Australia's energy market, highlighting negative wholesale prices and the high cost of peak power generation. The hosts also discuss the impact of new US tariffs on the global electronics supply chain and the challenges of designing with tiny 0.35mm pitch BGA components.
Pavel Molchanov, an Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James, discusses the economic and policy drivers shaping the climate tech sector, highlighting how solar panel costs have dropped 90% and EV adoption has surged in China. He contrasts successful scaling of mature technologies like solar and wind with the struggles of companies like Solyndra, which failed due to high costs despite innovative CIGS technology. Molchanov argues that while deep tech innovations like fusion and solid-state batteries are important, economic viability and business models are the primary determinants of success in the energy transition.
Auto industry expert Egil Juliussen explains that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will become cost-competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles within five years, driven by battery prices dropping to $100 per kilowatt-hour, expanded model availability from automakers like VW and GM, and lower operational costs. Supply chain specialist Lewis Black, chairman of El Monte, discusses a survey revealing US manufacturers' heavy reliance on China for strategic minerals like tungsten and tantalum, highlighting the critical need for diversification and the loss of extraction knowledge in the West. The episode also covers emerging battery technologies such as supercapacitors and wireless charging, while noting the political and logistical challenges of reshoring mineral supply chains.
The hosts analyze the collapse of D2C brand Allbirds, which sold its assets for $39 million after failing to sustain quality and relevance, and SpaceX's confidential IPO filing targeting a $1 trillion valuation driven by Starlink revenue. They discuss Iran's acquisition of a Chinese spy satellite via an in-orbit delivery model to bypass export controls, and the cancellation of the Sony Honda AFEELA EV joint venture due to market misalignment and Honda's financial struggles. The episode also covers Slate Auto's $650 million raise for a low-cost EV pickup, Stellantis's global recall of 700,000 vehicles for fire risks, and the emergence of lab-grown chocolate by Celeste Bio to stabilize cocoa prices.
Drew Allen, CEO of Grace Technologies, argues that US manufacturing is falling behind China due to a lack of energy infrastructure and slow iteration cycles, citing China's addition of 278 gigawatts of solar capacity last year compared to the US's 49. He advocates for 'anti-fragile' factories that can handle supply shocks and teams that thrive on chaos, rather than just consistency. Allen also discusses the critical need for vertical integration, using Boom Supersonic as an example of rapid innovation, and critiques current tariff policies as counterproductive without sufficient domestic capacity.
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