Catalyst · 23 Feb 2023 · 40m
Nat Bullard, a senior contributor at Bloomberg Green and venture partner at Voyager Ventures, presents his 140-slide decarbonization trends report to host Shayle Khan. They analyze land use dynamics, noting that 40% of U.S. corn goes to ethanol, and discuss the political backlash against ESG, arguing it should be broken into specific risk screens. The conversation concludes with battery market data, highlighting that while pack prices rose 7% in 2022, system costs rose 25%, yet demand remains strong due to grid ROI, with Asian manufacturers like CATL, LG, and BYD dominating production.
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Chris Gammell details his new 13kW solar and Tesla Powerwall 3 installation, discussing the economics of virtual power plants and peak pricing. Dave Jones analyzes Australia's energy market, highlighting negative wholesale prices and the high cost of peak power generation. The hosts also discuss the impact of new US tariffs on the global electronics supply chain and the challenges of designing with tiny 0.35mm pitch BGA components.
Auto industry expert Egil Juliussen explains that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will become cost-competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles within five years, driven by battery prices dropping to $100 per kilowatt-hour, expanded model availability from automakers like VW and GM, and lower operational costs. Supply chain specialist Lewis Black, chairman of El Monte, discusses a survey revealing US manufacturers' heavy reliance on China for strategic minerals like tungsten and tantalum, highlighting the critical need for diversification and the loss of extraction knowledge in the West. The episode also covers emerging battery technologies such as supercapacitors and wireless charging, while noting the political and logistical challenges of reshoring mineral supply chains.
IPC Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac joins host Philip Stoughton to analyze recent market volatility, attributing the tech stock sell-off to a repricing of risk driven by geopolitical tensions, a slowing US economy, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. DuBravac explains that EMS and PCB manufacturers are losing pricing power as input costs remain high while selling prices decline, forcing companies to seek lower-cost production in Asia or Mexico. The conversation further explores how the upcoming US presidential election creates investment hesitation among manufacturers, who are waiting for policy clarity and potential stimulus before committing to long-term capital projects.
The hosts discuss Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), a technology leveraging advanced oil and gas drilling techniques to generate baseload power from hot rock anywhere, potentially supplying 20% of US energy by 2050. They analyze specific technologies like PDC drill bits, directional drilling, and fracking, while debating the economic viability of EGS against falling solar and battery costs. The conversation highlights the FORGE project in Utah as a key pilot and addresses the high capital risk and uncertainty surrounding whether these costs will drop sufficiently to compete with established renewables.
Dave Jones and Chris Gammell discuss home energy systems, including Chris's Tesla Powerwall and Dave's battery rack issues, alongside the broader challenges of solar grid integration in Australia and the US. They analyze the design and manufacturing of a weird A&M 626 multimeter, speculating on its tooling origins. The conversation shifts to Dave's new timer project, debating microcontroller choices like the ESP32 versus ESP32-C3 and firmware platforms like Arduino versus ESP-IDF for low-power applications.
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