Episode 52: AI and Outsized Expectations

The Circuit · 4 Feb 2024 · 41m · Episode 54

What this episode covers

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the semiconductor industry's recent earnings season, highlighting how companies like AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple faced negative stock reactions despite good results due to 'outsized AI expectations.' They analyze the difficulty of modeling AI Total Addressable Market (TAM) and the challenge of charging premiums for AI features, noting that while AI improves efficiency incrementally, it is unlikely to significantly accelerate consumer refresh cycles in the near term. The hosts conclude that the current market is in an experimentation phase where gains are small but cumulative, and investors need to rebalance their expectations against realistic supply constraints and consumer willingness to pay.

Mentioned

Companies
AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Nvidia, Intel, Microsoft, TSMC, OpenAI
Products
ChatGPT, Vision Pro, MI300, Snapdragon, Gaudi
Chips
H100

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