Inside the global fertilizer crunch

What this episode covers

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, explains how the global fertilizer market is experiencing unprecedented supply tightness due to a 'stacking shock' of pre-existing constraints and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He details how China's export bans on phosphate and urea, combined with reduced European nitrogen production due to high gas prices, left the market with no shock absorption before the geopolitical crisis. Linville highlights that roughly a third of tradable urea and significant anhydrous ammonia are now locked behind the Strait, creating a stalemate where prices are high but physical shortages are not yet absolute, though the risk of rationing grows as the planting season approaches.