# #218 - Forecasting 101 with Graza & Drivepoint

- Show: [The Startup CPG Podcast](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-startup-cpg-podcast)
- Published: 2025-10-14
- Length: 1h 02m
- Episode: 205
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-startup-cpg-podcast/2025-10-14-218-forecasting-101-with-graza-drivepoint
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/2f903354

## Summary

Austin Gardner-Smith, CEO of Drivepoint, and David Sooch, Senior Director of Finance at Graza, discuss the critical role of forecasting in scaling CPG brands. They detail how forecasting responsibilities evolve from founders to dedicated finance teams as revenue grows, and explain the multi-layered process of translating shelf velocity into production and cash flow plans. The conversation covers specific strategies for retail versus e-commerce forecasting, managing new product launches like Graza's refillable canisters, and maintaining healthy tension between sales, ops, and finance.

## Outline

1. Introduction and Forecasting Basics
2. Evolution of Forecasting Ownership by Company Stage
3. Graza's Bottoms-Up Retail Forecasting Process
4. Forecasting Layers: Velocity, Shipments, and Cash
5. E-commerce and Marketplace Forecasting Strategies
6. Managing Tension and Accuracy in S&OP
7. Handling Overstock and Expiry Inventory

## Topics

- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)
- [Scaling production](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/scaling-production)
- [Direct-to-consumer & e-commerce](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/direct-to-consumer)
- [Retail, wholesale & distribution](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/retail-and-distribution)
- [Hiring & workforce](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/hiring-and-workforce)
- [AI & machine learning](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/ai-and-machine-learning)

## Most relevant to

companies scaling up

## Mentioned

- Drivepoint (company)
- Graza (company)
- Waterloo Sparkling Water (company)
- Mars Chocolate (company)
- Whole Foods (company)
- Publix (company)
- Kroger (company)
- Grocery Outlet (company)
- Feeding America (company)
- Servo Wellness (company)
- Oats Overnight (company)
- Just Egg (company)
- Amazon (company)
- TikTok Shop (company)
- SIN seven (tool)

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- [Advice Line with Mark Ramadan of Sir Kensington's](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/how-i-built-this/2024-06-27-advice-line-with-mark-ramadan-of-sir-kensingtons) (How I Built This)
- [Advice Line: Scaling Strategies](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/how-i-built-this/2025-05-22-advice-line-scaling-strategies) (How I Built This)
- [Advice Line: What’s Your Value?](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/how-i-built-this/2026-03-19-advice-line-whats-your-value) (How I Built This)
- [Advice Line with Tim Ferriss](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/how-i-built-this/2025-08-28-advice-line-with-tim-ferriss) (How I Built This)

## Citing this page

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