# Ep 149: TSMC Q4 25 Earnings, OpenAI Needs more Compute and Monetization

- Show: [The Circuit](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit)
- Published: 2026-01-19
- Length: 54m
- Episode: 151
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/f38cc9dc

## Summary

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg analyze TSMC's Q4 25 earnings, highlighting the massive $54 billion CapEx commitment and the critical bottleneck of CoWoS advanced packaging, which currently contributes less than 10% of revenue despite its complexity. They discuss OpenAI's strategic partnerships with Cerebras and other chip vendors to secure compute, alongside the introduction of ads and lower-tier subscriptions to monetize their user base. Finally, the hosts break down GPU pricing trends, noting the significant premium hyperscalers charge compared to NeoClouds and the difficulty in tracking pricing for Nvidia's new Grace Blackwell chips due to long-term contract restrictions.

## Chapters

- [0:06](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization#t=6) Introduction: The Diligent Stack and TSMC Context
- [3:03](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization#t=183) TSMC Earnings, CapEx, and AI Demand Risks
- [11:32](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization#t=692) TSMC Expansion, Automation, and Margin Analysis
- [19:27](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization#t=1167) Advanced Packaging, Masks, and Node Economics
- [33:12](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization#t=1992) OpenAI, Cerebras, and Compute Monetization
- [44:02](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-01-19-ep-149-tsmc-q4-25-earnings-openai-needs-more-compute-and-monetization#t=2642) GPU Pricing, Hyper-scalers vs. NeoClouds, and Grace Blackwell

## Topics

- [Manufacturing partners & offshoring](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/manufacturing-partners)
- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)
- [Direct-to-consumer & e-commerce](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/direct-to-consumer)
- [Scaling production](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/scaling-production)
- [Chips, FPGAs & semiconductors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/chips-and-fpgas)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- TSMC (company)
- OpenAI (company)
- Cerebras (company)
- Nvidia (company)
- CoWoS (other)
- Grace Blackwell (product)
- H100 (product)
- AWS (company)
- NeoClouds (other)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [TSMC Scraps a Batch of Wafers | AI Limitations | ISSCC](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2019-02-22-tsmc-scraps-a-batch-of-wafers-ai-limitations-isscc) (EE Times Current)
- [ON Semi’s Acquisition | TSMC’s Finer Nodes | Tesla’s AI Chip | China’s Fabless Companies](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2019-04-26-on-semis-acquisition-tsmcs-finer-nodes-teslas-ai-chip-chinas-fabless-companies) (EE Times Current)
- [AI Disruption: DeepSeek and Cerebras](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-02-06-ai-disruption-deepseek-and-cerebras) (Oxide and Friends)
- [2025 Finale: Yann LeCun Raises $3B, Domain Addiction Confessions & Built 2 Scale Year Wrap](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/built-2-scale/2025-12-22-2025-finale-yann-lecun-raises-3b-domain-addiction-confessions-built-2-scale-year) (Built 2 Scale)
- [Bonkers Birthday Badinage](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2012-06-18-bonkers-birthday-badinage) (The Amp Hour)

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