# Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 - Bullishness Remains

- Show: [The Circuit](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit)
- Published: 2025-01-05
- Length: 42m
- Episode: 99
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/1f622919

## Summary

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the 2025 semiconductor outlook, highlighting continued capital expenditure by hyper-scalers on AI infrastructure and the critical need for software revenue to justify these hardware investments. They analyze the competitive landscape between NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, while noting that consumer electronics like PCs and smartphones will see only modest growth driven by replacement cycles rather than a super-cycle. The hosts also predict a surge in aerospace and military spending, significant activity in AR glasses at CES, and speculate that a foldable iPhone is unlikely before 2026 due to durability concerns.

## Chapters

- [0:06](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=6) Introduction: 2025 Market Outlook and Portfolio Rebalancing
- [2:12](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=132) Macro Assumptions and AI Infrastructure Spending
- [6:15](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=375) The AI Hardware Debate: NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom
- [9:00](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=540) Monetizing Capex: The Need for Software Revenue
- [14:37](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=877) Inference Economics and Enterprise AI Deployment
- [19:07](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=1147) Investor Timeline for AI Returns and Revenue
- [20:45](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=1245) Consumer Electronics: PCs, Smartphones, and China
- [27:58](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=1678) AR Glasses, Batteries, and the CES Preview
- [36:09](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=2169) Aerospace, Military Spending, and Analog Growth
- [39:12](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains#t=2352) The Foldable iPhone Prediction for 2025-2026

## Topics

- [Fundraising & investors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/fundraising)
- [Microcontrollers & dev platforms](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/microcontrollers-and-platforms)
- [Connected products & IoT](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/connected-products-and-iot)
- [Industrial & consumer product design](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/industrial-design)
- [Policy, trade & tariffs](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/policy-trade-and-tariffs)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- NVIDIA (company)
- AMD (company)
- Broadcom (company)
- Intel (company)
- Microsoft (company)
- Amazon (company)
- OpenAI (company)
- Meta (company)
- Apple (company)
- Huawei (company)
- X-Real (product)
- TCL (company)
- Anduril (company)
- Palantir (company)
- TI (company)
- ADI (company)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Predictions 2025](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025) (Oxide and Friends)
- [T-26-011 : Happy CES-mas](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/tradeoffs/2026-01-05-t-26-011-happy-ces-mas) (TRADEOFFS)
- [Bonkers Birthday Badinage](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2012-06-18-bonkers-birthday-badinage) (The Amp Hour)
- [Wow, Dave REALLY likes Top Gun](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2022-07-25-wow-dave-really-likes-top-gun) (The Amp Hour)
- […And Now For Something Completely 2021](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2021-01-08-and-now-for-something-completely-2021) (EE Times Current)

## Citing this page

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