# Episode 55: Intel IFS Economics and Last Fabs Standing

- Show: [The Circuit](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit)
- Published: 2024-02-19
- Length: 40m
- Episode: 56
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/6596978d

## Summary

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg analyze the economic viability of Intel Foundry Services (IFS), using historical data to define an 'exit zone' for leading-edge fabs based on the ratio of revenue to fab construction costs. They model IFS's standalone financials, estimating it will lose billions annually and require approximately $5 billion in external customer revenue by 2028 to remain competitive against TSMC and Samsung. The hosts conclude that spinning off IFS is currently infeasible, as the division cannot yet generate sufficient revenue to justify its massive capital expenditures, predicting a long timeline of 5-10 years before IFS could potentially become a viable standalone entity or acquire other foundry assets.

## Chapters

- [0:05](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=5) Introduction: The Intel Foundry Economics Puzzle
- [2:39](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=159) Historical Exit Zone Analysis: TSMC, Samsung, and Intel
- [9:45](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=585) Fab Utilization and the Need for External Customers
- [14:28](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=868) Modeling IFS Revenue and Gross Margins
- [22:06](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=1326) Standalone IFS Financials and Loss Projections
- [27:24](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=1644) Long-Term Outlook: 2028-2030 and Strategic Scenarios
- [34:22](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-19-episode-55-intel-ifs-economics-and-last-fabs-standing#t=2062) Samsung, GlobalFoundries, and Potential Acquisitions

## Topics

- [Chips, FPGAs & semiconductors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/chips-and-fpgas)
- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)
- [Manufacturing partners & offshoring](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/manufacturing-partners)
- [Scaling production](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/scaling-production)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- Intel (company)
- TSMC (company)
- Samsung (company)
- AMD (company)
- GlobalFoundries (company)
- NVIDIA (company)
- Intel Foundry Services (product)
- Moore's Law (other)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Headline: Intel Throws a Curveball | The Book on Gallium Nitride](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2021-03-26-headline-intel-throws-a-curveball-the-book-on-gallium-nitride) (EE Times Current)
- [OSHW, Makerbot & Memristo - Maundering Memristor Mathematicaster](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2011-10-11-oshw-makerbot-memristo-maundering-memristor-mathematicaster) (The Amp Hour)
- [Jersey Jeff Jactitation](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2012-02-07-jersey-jeff-jactitation) (The Amp Hour)
- [Intel on Getting Its Mojo Back](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2021-07-30-intel-on-getting-its-mojo-back) (EE Times Current)
- [No More Naming](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2015-07-23-no-more-naming) (The Amp Hour)

## Citing this page

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