# Episode 52: AI and Outsized Expectations

- Show: [The Circuit](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit)
- Published: 2024-02-04
- Length: 41m
- Episode: 54
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-02-04-episode-52-ai-and-outsized-expectations
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/f99a49f1

## Summary

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the semiconductor industry's recent earnings season, highlighting how companies like AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple faced negative stock reactions despite good results due to 'outsized AI expectations.' They analyze the difficulty of modeling AI Total Addressable Market (TAM) and the challenge of charging premiums for AI features, noting that while AI improves efficiency incrementally, it is unlikely to significantly accelerate consumer refresh cycles in the near term. The hosts conclude that the current market is in an experimentation phase where gains are small but cumulative, and investors need to rebalance their expectations against realistic supply constraints and consumer willingness to pay.

## Outline

1. Introduction: Early Adopters Day and Earnings Season Overview
2. The Problem with AI TAM Models and Supply Constraints
3. AMD's MI300 Guidance and Wall Street's Reaction
4. Software AI Constraints and the Difficulty of Charging Premiums
5. Edge AI, ASPs, and Consumer Willingness to Pay
6. Refresh Cycles: Will AI Shorten Upgrade Intervals?
7. Microsoft, Apple, and the Future of AI PCs
8. Conclusion: Small Gains, Experimentation, and Realistic Expectations

## Topics

- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)
- [AI & machine learning](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/ai-and-machine-learning)
- [Chips, FPGAs & semiconductors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/chips-and-fpgas)
- [Validation & product-market fit](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/validation-and-product-market-fit)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- AMD (company)
- Qualcomm (company)
- Apple (company)
- Nvidia (company)
- Intel (company)
- Microsoft (company)
- TSMC (company)
- OpenAI (company)
- ChatGPT (product)
- Vision Pro (product)
- MI300 (product)
- Snapdragon (product)
- Gaudi (product)
- H100 (chip)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Fixing AI’s Bottlenecks: Memory, Scale, and Sparsity](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2026-04-23-fixing-ais-bottlenecks-memory-scale-and-sparsity) (EE Times Current)
- [No More Naming](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2015-07-23-no-more-naming) (The Amp Hour)
- [Predictions 2025](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025) (Oxide and Friends)
- [Bonkers Birthday Badinage](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2012-06-18-bonkers-birthday-badinage) (The Amp Hour)
- [Navigating the Semiconductor Space for IoT | Rand Technology's Jennifer Strawn | Internet of Things Podcast](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/iot-for-all-podcast/2023-11-07-navigating-the-semiconductor-space-for-iot-rand-technologys-jennifer-strawn-inte) (IoT For All Podcast)

## Citing this page

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