# Episode 16: Is the Semiconductor Growth Cycle Over?

- Show: [The Circuit](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit)
- Published: 2023-04-25
- Length: 41m
- Episode: 16
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/dc10838e

## Summary

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of the semiconductor industry, arguing that while secular growth continues, the recent hyper-growth cycle has ended due to saturation in smartphones and PCs. They analyze how industry consolidation, particularly by Broadcom, has created pricing power for a few key players like Nvidia and TSMC, while smaller vendors struggle with supply access and commoditization. The hosts also explore the constraints of leading-edge capacity, the potential for chiplet architectures to utilize older nodes like 7nm, and the rising influence of Chinese foundry SMIC.

## Chapters

- [0:18](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over#t=18) Introduction: The End of the Semi Growth Cycle
- [2:16](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over#t=136) Industry Cyclicality and Demand Staggering
- [5:37](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over#t=337) Supply Constraints and TSMC's Capacity
- [15:48](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over#t=948) Pricing Power and Industry Consolidation
- [27:53](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over#t=1673) Apple's Dominance and Supply Chain Leverage
- [35:40](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-04-25-episode-16-is-the-semiconductor-growth-cycle-over#t=2140) Chiplets, 7nm, and Chinese Semiconductor Growth

## Topics

- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)
- [Sourcing & supply chain](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/sourcing-and-supply-chain)
- [Chips, FPGAs & semiconductors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/chips-and-fpgas)
- [Policy, trade & tariffs](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/policy-trade-and-tariffs)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- TSMC (company)
- Nvidia (company)
- Broadcom (company)
- Apple (company)
- AMD (company)
- SMIC (company)
- Qualcomm (company)
- NXP (company)
- Intel (company)
- GPU (product)
- 7 nanometer (other)
- 3 nanometer (other)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Whither Semiconductors? The Wheels on the Bus Go ‘Round and ‘Round](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2021-07-16-whither-semiconductors-the-wheels-on-the-bus-go-round-and-round) (EE Times Current)
- [ON Semi’s Acquisition | TSMC’s Finer Nodes | Tesla’s AI Chip | China’s Fabless Companies](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2019-04-26-on-semis-acquisition-tsmcs-finer-nodes-teslas-ai-chip-chinas-fabless-companies) (EE Times Current)
- [Consolidate All The Things - Zonked Zelotic Zaitech](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2015-06-12-consolidate-all-the-things-zonked-zelotic-zaitech) (The Amp Hour)
- [Bonkers Birthday Badinage](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2012-06-18-bonkers-birthday-badinage) (The Amp Hour)
- [For a couple weeks there...](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2023-11-28-for-a-couple-weeks-there) (The Amp Hour)

## Citing this page

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