# 313 - "We don't see a recession in 2025" Tariffs and the Economy with Lauren Saidel-Baker from ITR Economics

- Show: [People of Packaging](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging)
- Published: 2025-06-12
- Length: 37m
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b
- Listen: https://encase.substack.com/p/313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025

## Summary

Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, joins Adam Peek to discuss the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the packaging industry. She argues that while tariffs create uncertainty and inflationary pressure, they are not the primary driver of current onshoring trends, which are fueled by labor costs and energy prices. Saidel-Baker predicts no recession in 2025 due to strong consumer spending, but warns of a potential depression around 2030 driven by demographic shifts and government debt.

## Chapters

- [0:01](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b#t=1) Introduction and Guest Background
- [4:57](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b#t=297) Tariffs as Taxes and Economic Uncertainty
- [12:51](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b#t=771) Onshoring Drivers and Economic Indicators
- [17:09](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b#t=1029) Aluminum Market Case Study
- [21:40](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b#t=1300) No Recession in 2025 Forecast
- [26:26](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b#t=1586) 2030 Depression Warning and Advice

## Topics

- [Policy, trade & tariffs](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/policy-trade-and-tariffs)
- [Growth, exits & acquisitions](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/growth-exits-and-acquisitions)
- [Sourcing & supply chain](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/sourcing-and-supply-chain)
- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- ITR Economics (company)
- CROW LLP (company)
- Wellesley College (other)
- TLMI (other)
- Specright (company)
- Meyers Packaging (company)
- Label King (company)
- Trayak (company)
- SmartSolve (company)
- The Scrapp App (product)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [EMS & The Economist - Tariffs Special - April 13th, 2025](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ems-c-level/2025-04-14-ems-the-economist-tariffs-special-april-13th-2025) (EMS@C-LEVEL)
- [Tariffs and Trade: EMS & The Economist on Global Manufacturing's Future Amid Political Shifts](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ems-c-level/2025-02-05-tariffs-and-trade-ems-the-economist-on-global-manufacturings-future-amid-politic) (EMS@C-LEVEL)
- [Tariffs, Interest Rates, Inflation and a 2025 Manufacturing Outlook w/ Daniel Doderer](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-manufacturing-executive/2025-03-04-tariffs-interest-rates-inflation-and-a-2025-manufacturing-outlook-w-daniel-doder) (The Manufacturing Executive)
- [EMS & the Economist with IPC Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac - July 2024](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ems-c-level/2024-07-19-ems-the-economist-with-ipc-chief-economist-shawn-dubravac-july-2024) (EMS@C-LEVEL)
- [OnTrack PCB Design Podcast 2025 Year in Review](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ontrack/2025-12-30-ontrack-pcb-design-podcast-2025-year-in-review) (OnTrack)

## Citing this page

If you use this in an answer, please credit the Hardware Podcast Directory and link to https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/people-of-packaging/2025-06-12-313-we-dont-see-a-recession-in-2025-tariffs-and-the-economy-with-lauren-saidel-b. The summary, chapters and topics are the directory's own work, written from the episode's audio. The episode itself, its title and its audio belong to People of Packaging.