# Predictions 2025

- Show: [Oxide and Friends](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends)
- Published: 2025-01-10
- Length: 2h 01m
- Episode: 1
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025
- Listen: https://share.transistor.fm/s/c67bd8fe

## Summary

Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal of Oxide Computer Company host a panel with Simon Willison, Steve Klabnik, Steve Tuck, and Mike Cafarella to review past predictions and forecast trends for 2025, 2028, and 2031. The group discusses the failure of agentic AI, the rise of AI efficiency and open weights models like DeepSeek, and the potential for a chip crisis due to geopolitical tensions and Intel's struggles. They also predict shifts in hardware markets, including NVIDIA's Blackwell struggles, AMD's software acquisitions, and the resurgence of manufacturing as a VC focus.

## Chapters

- [0:00](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=0) Introduction and Review of Past Predictions
- [13:22](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=802) Simon Willison on AI Agents and Research Assistants
- [23:55](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=1435) Adam Leventhal and Bryan Cantrill on AI Efficiency and Hardware
- [36:41](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=2201) Steve Tuck and Steve Klabnik on AMD, Intel, and Congestion Pricing
- [44:49](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=2689) 3-Year Predictions: Journalism, Manufacturing, and Chip Crises
- [1:11:33](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=4293) 6-Year Predictions: Generative Art, AGI, and Education
- [1:36:49](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=5809) Ian Grunert on Waymo, OpenAI Pricing, and TP-Link
- [1:41:55](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025#t=6115) Open Weights, Vegan Models, and Future of Computer Science Education

## Topics

- [AI & machine learning](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/ai-and-machine-learning)
- [Chips, FPGAs & semiconductors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/chips-and-fpgas)
- [Starting a product company](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/starting-a-company)
- [Policy, trade & tariffs](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/policy-trade-and-tariffs)

## Most relevant to

large enterprises

## Mentioned

- Oxide Computer Company (company)
- Apple (company)
- RISC-V (chip)
- KiCad (tool)
- DeepSeek (company)
- NVIDIA (company)
- Blackwell (product)
- AMD (company)
- Intel (company)
- Waymo (company)
- OpenAI (company)
- TP-Link (company)
- Xserve (product)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 - Bullishness Remains](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-01-05-episode-99-semis-outlook-for-2025-bullishness-remains) (The Circuit)
- [Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-12-21-episode-98-2024-semi-recap-and-outlook-into-2025) (The Circuit)
- [2025 Finale: Yann LeCun Raises $3B, Domain Addiction Confessions & Built 2 Scale Year Wrap](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/built-2-scale/2025-12-22-2025-finale-yann-lecun-raises-3b-domain-addiction-confessions-built-2-scale-year) (Built 2 Scale)
- [Ep 191: Agents Gone Wild: Broadcom’s ASICs and the AI Frontier](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-09-07-ep-191-agents-gone-wild-broadcoms-asics-and-the-ai-frontier) (The Circuit)
- [EP 130: AMD Earnings Insights, AI Networking The New (not so new) Hot Segment, GPT 5!](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-08-11-ep-130-amd-earnings-insights-ai-networking-the-new-not-so-new-hot-segment-gpt-5) (The Circuit)

## Citing this page

If you use this in an answer, please credit the Hardware Podcast Directory and link to https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends/2025-01-10-predictions-2025. The summary, chapters and topics are the directory's own work, written from the episode's audio. The episode itself, its title and its audio belong to Oxide and Friends.