# ERCOT batteries: boom, bust, or rebound?

- Show: [Catalyst](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst)
- Published: 2026-10-01
- Length: 37m
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound

## Summary

Shayle Kann interviews Brandt Vermillion, U.S. market lead at Modo Energy, about the Texas (ERCOT) grid-scale battery market, which has grown from 200 megawatts to 17 gigawatts, causing revenue to plummet by 84% due to ancillary service saturation and energy arbitrage cannibalization. Vermillion explains that while current revenues of ~$30/kW are underwater for most projects, the influx of data center load and the retirement of aging gas plants are expected to restore volatility and revenues by 2029-2030. The conversation details how longer-duration batteries (2.5-4 hours) capture secondary price spikes during extreme weather events like Storm Fern, and how developers are using tolling agreements to bridge the gap until market conditions improve.

## Chapters

- [0:07](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=7) Introduction: ERCOT battery growth and revenue collapse
- [4:25](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=265) Brandt Vermillion on ERCOT capacity and revenue models
- [8:22](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=502) Ancillary service saturation and energy arbitrage cannibalization
- [13:29](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=809) Weather impacts, Storm Fern, and battery duration shifts
- [22:39](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=1359) Financing challenges and tolling agreements
- [25:22](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=1522) Data center load growth and interconnection queue dynamics
- [30:33](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=1833) Volatility recovery timeline and behind-the-meter risks
- [35:48](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound#t=2148) ERCOT parallels with PJM, California, and UK markets

## Topics

- [Energy & climate tech](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/energy-and-climate-tech)
- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)
- [Scaling production](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/scaling-production)
- [Batteries & low-power design](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/batteries-and-low-power)
- [Direct-to-consumer & e-commerce](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/direct-to-consumer)

## Most relevant to

early-stage companies

## Mentioned

- Modo Energy (company)
- ERCOT (other)
- EnergyHub (company)
- PJM (other)
- California ISO (other)

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## Citing this page

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