# When will quantum computing have its breakout moment?

- Show: [Catalyst](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst)
- Published: 2026-07-16
- Length: 40m
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment

## Summary

Bob Sorensen, chief analyst for quantum computing at Hyperion Research, explains that while governments have committed over $50 billion and VC funding has surged, quantum computing remains in a pre-commercial 'noisy intermediate-scale' phase. He argues that current 'quantum advantage' claims, such as Google's Willow chip simulation, are often based on artificial benchmarks with no real-world relevance, and that the industry must overcome the significant hurdle of error correction to produce useful logical qubits. Sorensen predicts fault-tolerant systems in 3-4 years, noting that 85 hardware vendors is too many for the ecosystem and that market consolidation is inevitable to avoid an 'AI winter' style downturn.

## Chapters

- [0:06](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=6) Introduction: Quantum hype, funding, and Google's Willow chip
- [4:00](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=240) History of quantum computing and current state of the market
- [7:46](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=466) Artificial benchmarks: Boson sampling and the Plinko example
- [12:00](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=720) Algorithm development challenges and the 'garage car' metaphor
- [15:23](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=923) Error correction, physical vs. logical qubits, and NISQ era
- [24:59](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=1499) Key applications: Materials discovery, optimization, and CFD
- [32:25](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=1945) Quantum vs. AI in materials discovery: Periodic Labs and explainability
- [35:42](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2026-07-16-when-will-quantum-computing-have-its-breakout-moment#t=2142) Market consolidation: 85 vendors, VC risks, and avoiding an AI winter

## Topics

- [Chips, FPGAs & semiconductors](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/chips-and-fpgas)
- [AI & machine learning](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/ai-and-machine-learning)
- [Starting a product company](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/starting-a-company)
- [Materials & manufacturing processes](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/materials-and-processes)
- [Scaling production](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/scaling-production)

## Most relevant to

early-stage companies

## Mentioned

- Hyperion Research (company)
- Google (company)
- Willow chip (product)
- Periodic Labs (company)
- Rolls-Royce (company)
- FedEx (company)
- EnergyHub (company)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Quantum Computing: Sci-Fi Technology Requires Real-World Engineering](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/moores-lobby/2024-02-13-quantum-computing-sci-fi-technology-requires-real-world-engineering) (Moore's Lobby)
- [Quantum Computing with Andrea Morello](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2020-06-28-quantum-computing-with-andrea-morello) (The Amp Hour)
- [Ep. 34 | The Latest from the Lab: How IBM Research Is Inventing What's Next](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/moores-lobby/2021-10-12-ep-34-the-latest-from-the-lab-how-ibm-research-is-inventing-whats-next) (Moore's Lobby)
- [Yonatan Cohen | Quantum Computing](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/being-an-engineer/2023-01-27-yonatan-cohen-quantum-computing) (Being an Engineer)
- [The Queen of Quantum | Space Docs and The Right Stuff | The Best Interviews](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/ee-times-current/2019-12-23-the-queen-of-quantum-space-docs-and-the-right-stuff-the-best-interviews) (EE Times Current)

## Citing this page

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