# A skeptic’s take on AI electricity load growth

- Show: [Catalyst](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst)
- Published: 2025-03-06
- Length: 54m
- Page: https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth

## Summary

Jonathan Koomey, founder of Koomey Analytics, challenges the prevailing narrative of explosive AI-driven electricity load growth, arguing that historical data shows efficiency gains typically outpace demand increases. He explains that current forecasts often rely on Nvidia’s sales projections rather than actual service demand, ignoring the potential for significant efficiency improvements in software, algorithms, and specialized hardware. Koomey suggests that infrastructure constraints, such as transformer and labor shortages, will force the industry to prioritize efficiency, leading to a growth pattern similar to the 2010-2018 period where compute output surged while electricity use remained modest.

## Chapters

- [0:00](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=0) Introduction: Open Circuit and Catalyst Overview
- [1:51](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=111) Sponsor Reads: EnergyHub, Bloom Energy, and NG Resources
- [2:58](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=178) The Perception of Insatiable AI Demand and Grid Constraints
- [5:53](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=353) Historical Context: The Dot-com Boom and Data Center Efficiency
- [12:16](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=736) Uncertainty in Historical Data and Forecasting Variability
- [14:54](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=894) The Two Drivers of Load: Service Demand vs. Efficiency
- [20:50](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=1250) Jevons Paradox and the Assumption of Infinite Demand
- [27:29](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=1649) Liability, Hallucinations, and the Revenue Question
- [33:46](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=2026) Paths to Efficiency: Architecture, Software, and Specialized Hardware
- [41:47](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=2507) Utility Strategies and the 'World of Atoms' Constraint
- [49:06](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/catalyst/2025-03-06-a-skeptics-take-on-ai-electricity-load-growth#t=2946) Current US Data Center Capacity and Future Projections

## Topics

- [Energy & climate tech](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/energy-and-climate-tech)
- [AI & machine learning](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/ai-and-machine-learning)
- [Scaling production](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/scaling-production)
- [Pricing, margins & unit economics](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/topic/pricing-and-unit-economics)

## Most relevant to

early-stage companies

## Mentioned

- Koomey Analytics (company)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (company)
- Nvidia (company)
- Deep Seek (product)
- International Energy Agency (company)
- EnergyHub (company)

## Related episodes from other shows

- [Episode 75: The AI Big $$$ Question](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2024-07-16-episode-75-the-ai-big-question) (The Circuit)
- [All Heat, No Useful Work](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-amp-hour/2026-05-25-all-heat-no-useful-work) (The Amp Hour)
- [EP 186: Mobile Bottlenecks, Skyrocketing AI CapEx, and the Compute Crunch](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2026-08-03-ep-186-mobile-bottlenecks-skyrocketing-ai-capex-and-the-compute-crunch) (The Circuit)
- [Episode 8: AI Infrastructure and Silicon Demands](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2023-02-27-episode-8-ai-infrastructure-and-silicon-demands) (The Circuit)
- [EP 147: Talking All Things AI with Benedict Evans](https://hardwarepodcasts.com/podcast/the-circuit/2025-12-29-ep-147-talking-all-things-ai-with-benedict-evans) (The Circuit)

## Citing this page

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